Is George Kirby Stuck at a Plateau, or Is Another Level Within Reach?
It's been evident since George Kirby first stepped onto the mound for the Seattle Mariners in 2022 that he possesses a truly exceptional arm. What sets him apart, even among pitchers who can consistently hit the upper-90s on the radar gun, is his uncanny ability to pinpoint his pitches. This level of control is so remarkable that it draws comparisons to none other than Hall of Famer Greg Maddux.
Kirby has certainly made the most of these innate gifts early in his major league journey. Despite making his debut more than a month into the 2022 season, he still managed to secure sixth place in Rookie of the Year voting. The following year, 2023, saw him earn an All-Star selection. Across his first three seasons, he's impressively maintained an Earned Run Average (ERA) no higher than 3.53 and a walk rate below 4.1%.
Last season, however, presented a bit of a bumpy ride for the right-hander. This inconsistency can be at least partially attributed to a delayed start to his year. For the first time in his career, Kirby found himself on the injured list, missing the initial two months of the campaign due to inflammation in his right shoulder.
After what could be considered a dip in performance by his own high standards, the former All-Star enters 2026 as a prime candidate for a significant comeback. But here's where it gets interesting: many believe there's still untapped potential waiting to be unleashed.
During a recent broadcast of Seattle Sports' Bump and Stacy, co-host Stacy Rost shared her conviction that Kirby hasn't yet reached his full capabilities. Jordan Shusterman of Yahoo Sports offered his insights into what could propel Kirby to that next level.
Shusterman highlighted the sheer volume of pitches thrown by pitchers like Kirby, Logan Gilbert, and Bryce Miller. He suggested that the key lies in identifying that one secondary pitch that will truly elevate their game. "I think with him what’s always interesting, and this is true for really all of these pitchers but especially with him and Logan (Gilbert) and Bryce (Miller), just the number of pitches that they throw. You really don’t know exactly what is the secondary pitch that is going to help him get to the next level," Shusterman explained.
He drew a parallel to Logan Gilbert, who, according to Shusterman, "clearly figured that out with his splitter. That unlocked the level of swing and miss that he wasn’t getting earlier in his career, and that’s something that Kirby I think is still looking for."
While Kirby did achieve a career-high 26.7% whiff rate last season, placing him in the 61st percentile among qualified pitchers, and marking the first time his whiff rate surpassed the league average, he still seems to be searching for that definitive put-away secondary pitch. His most strikeouts, 51, came on his four-seamer, followed by 26 on his sinker. His slider generated 33 strikeouts, the most for a non-fastball. In contrast, Gilbert recorded 90 strikeouts with his splitter, significantly more than the 31 from his fastballs.
"Maybe it is a splitter, maybe it’s another breaking ball. We know he’s capable of adding a lot of pitches, but the command is always going to be there," Shusterman mused about Kirby. "… As it has been with Kirby for a while, it’s just about finding the secondary pitch where you can get more swing and miss."
And this is the part most people miss: is Kirby’s future success hinged on developing a single pitch, or could a combination of refinements unlock his ultimate potential? What do you think? Could a splitter be the magic bullet, or is there another pitch entirely that will propel George Kirby into superstardom? Share your thoughts below!
